URA 1Q24 Real Estate Statistics for Residential, Office, and Retail

SINGAPORE, 26 April 2024

The Urban Redevelopment Authority released statistics on the residential, office and retail property market for 1Q24 today.

Residential

Ms Chia Siew Chuin, Head of Residential Research, Research & Consultancy, Singapore

谢岫君, 私宅市场研究部主管 (新加坡)

Private residential transactions in 1Q24 slowed 2.4% q-o-q

In 1Q24, total transactions of private homes (excluding Executive Condominiums or ECs) fell to 4,230 units, a 2.4% drop from the previous quarter. The slowdown reflects the effects of the cooling measures imposed in April 2023, elevated interest rates and the inertia to high prices amid soft economic conditions.

In the primary market, a total of 1,164 new private homes were sold in 1Q24, up 6.6% q-o-q, mainly lifted by an impressive take-up rate of 75% achieved by the new launch of Lentor Mansion in March in the Outside Central Region (OCR). Besides continued interest in the Lentor neighbourhood as well as the project’s offerings and locational advantage, the relatively smaller price quantum ranging from $1.15 million to $3.5 million is generally palatable to buyers. This suggests that there is some level of confidence among buyers despite the general cautious sentiment. It also shows that buyers are still drawn to projects that offer strong product quality and desirable locational attributes.

However, on a y-o-y basis, new home sales declined by 7.3% from 1,256 units in 1Q23. This was mainly weighed down by lower new home sales in the Core Central Region (CCR) in 1Q24 due to the lack of major new project launches there and the Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty (ABSD) hike in April 2023.

Over the past year, potential homebuyers have become increasingly cautious, prompted by successive rounds of market cooling measures, economic challenges and elevated financing costs. With a greater array of choices and rising prices, homebuyers are now more discerning and price-sensitive, resulting in slower sales as they deliberate longer before committing to a purchase.

In the secondary market, sale transactions continued to fall in 1Q24 – a third consecutive quarter of decline, with 3,066 units sold during the quarter as compared to 3,242 units that changed hands in the previous quarter. Besides the tentative market conditions, the drop in resale volume was also due to the mismatch of price expectations between buyers and sellers.

While total private residential transactions slowed 2.4% q-o-q in 1Q24, the latest available data on the URA Real Estate Information System (REALIS) showed that transactions involving non-permanent residents (non-PR) foreign buyers, fell more significantly, by 34.8% q-o-q, to only 43 units in 1Q24. Purchases by non-PR foreign buyers accounted for just 1.0% of total private transactions in 1Q24, sliding from the 6.4% registered in 1Q23. Non-PR foreign buyers are largely deterred by the prohibitive 60% ABSD that they are required to pay for any residential property purchase since 27 April 2023.

Price gain slows to 1.4% in 1Q24 after rising 2.8% in 4Q23

The price escalation of private homes moderated from 2.8% q-o-q in 4Q23 to 1.4% q-o-q in 1Q24. On a y-o-y basis, prices trended up by 4.9%. The slower price increase reflects the cautious stance among homebuyers towards lofty price levels amid slower wage growth and soft economic conditions. Still, despite the tempered price growth, the sustained uptrend in prices amidst a decline in overall sales volume underscores the resilience of underlying demand, reflecting the healthy state of household liquidity.

Landed properties continued to drive the overall price growth, although rising at a slower rate of 2.6% q-o-q in 1Q24, following a 4.6% q-o-q growth in 4Q23. Landed home prices were mainly bolstered by firm demand from local buyers, limited supply and high construction costs. The non-landed segment saw a further deceleration in price growth, with a marginal increase of 1.0% q-o-q compared to a 2.3% q-o-q increase in 4Q23.

Price appreciations were seen across all three market segments, with the CCR leading with a 3.4% q-o-q rise, extending the 3.9% q-o-q climb in 4Q23. The public release of Watten House in 1Q24 continued to lift market sentiment in the CCR, which translated into higher median prices for ongoing projects including Leedon Green, Perfect Ten and Midtown Modern. While foreign buyers have been sidelined by the ABSD hike, local buyers continue to see value in owning residential homes in the CCR.

In the OCR, prices of private non-landed homes were relatively stable, edging up slightly by 0.2% q-o-q in 1Q24. This price stability was supported by demand from local resident owner-occupiers and HDB flat upgraders, who are largely unscathed by the cooling measures. The rise in HDB resale prices by 1.8% q-o-q in 1Q24, the strongest growth in five quarters also contributed to this trend, benefiting those looking to upgrade to private residential properties. However, the extent of price increase for non-landed private homes in the OCR was capped as buyers have become more price sensitive. The 27.8% q-o-q jump in new sales in the OCR in 1Q24 along with firm prices for new projects at around $2,100-$2,200 psf helped keep prices steady. This stability came after a normalisation in prices following the robust sales and price performance of J'den in in 4Q23.

In 1Q24, demand and prices for some OCR projects remained positive as seen in the units sold and the median prices achieved during the quarter. Examples include Lentor Mansion (sold 408 units / $2,269 psf), Hillhaven (sold 79 units / $2,067 psf), Lentoria (sold 60 units / $2,129 psf) and The Botany at Dairy Farm (sold 59 units / $2,019 psf).

The Rest of the Central Region (RCR) also displayed price resilience. Prices of private non-landed homes in the RCR inched up by 0.3% q-o-q in 1Q24, rebounding from a previous quarter’s decline of 0.8%. This uptick was underpinned by the new launch of The Arcady at Boon Keng, a freehold project with an average price of $2,570 psf in January. Examples of other ongoing new projects in the RCR that registered a slight rise in median prices in 1Q24 included Terra Hill (up 6.0% q-o-q to $2,779 psf), The Reserve Residences (up 4.4% q-o-q to $2,554 psf) and Blossoms by the Park (up 3.2% q-o-q to $2,589 psf).

The changes in URA’s price indices in 1Q24 are tabulated below.

URA Private Residential Property Price Index Q-o-Q Changes

Source: URA, JLL Research

Unsold inventory expands and supply crunch in the private home sales market eases

With the government ramping up land supply for private residential development, the total stock of unsold private residential units islandwide expanded by 17.0% q-o-q to 20,204 units in 1Q24, crossing the 20,000-unit mark for the first time since 1Q21. This signifies an easing in the prolonged tight supply situation in the private residential sales market.

However, this remains at 46.5% below the pre-COVID peak of 37,779 units in 1Q19. Based on the average annual new home sales of 9,288 units in the last five years, the current unsold inventory is estimated to be absorbed in 2.2 years.

Among the market segments, while the level of unsold stock in the CCR was relatively stable in 1Q24, the RCR and OCR recorded quarterly increases of 22.3% and 29.8%, in unsold inventory, respectively.

With most developers having replenished their land banks, they are expected to be more discerning and strategic in land acquisitions. This is particularly in the light of cautious market conditions, heightened development costs and risks. Given the persistent disparity in pricing outlook between buyers and sellers in the private land sales market, it is likely that upcoming tenders of government land sales sites will continue to see selective interest and measured bids from developers. Small-to-medium sized plots will find favour with developers as they seek to manage costs and risks.

Islandwide rents continue to slide on increased leasing supply and competition for tenants

Following the typical year-end lull in 4Q23, the number of rental contracts for private residential homes islandwide (excluding ECs) crept up marginally by 3.4% q-o-q to 19,680 in 1Q24. On a y-o-y basis, rental contracts fell by 2.0%, as weaker leasing demand led to a fall in the number of rental contracts signed. Additionally, the leasing contract volume in 1Q24 was notably 10.9% below the corresponding 1Q average volumes in the past five years.

Consequently, overall private home rents fell for the second straight quarter by 1.9% q-o-q in 1Q24, after the 2.1% decline in 4Q23. Rents continued to correct due to increased leasing supply and heightened competition for tenants after housing completions peaked in 2023. Softer leasing demand amid a more subdued economy and resistance to high rents continued to place downward pressure on rents.

Landed properties led the decline in rents, by 4.2% q-o-q in 1Q24, while rents of non-landed homes dropped by 1.6% q-o-q, marginally easing from the 1.8% decline in the previous quarter.

In the non-landed segment, CCR rents slipped for the third straight quarter by 1.6% q-o-q in 1Q24, consistent with the 1.7% and 1.6% falls in 3Q23 and 4Q23, respectively. RCR and OCR non-landed home rents declined for the second consecutive quarter. However, rents in the RCR weakened by a steeper 1.9% q-o-q in 1Q24 following the 1.2% correction in the previous quarter. The fall in OCR rents pulled back from 2.8% q-o-q in 4Q23 to 1.4% q-o-q in 1Q24. This suggests that tenants continued to seek more affordable options in the OCR, giving rents some support.

Outlook

Potential buyers are expected to approach the market cautiously, keeping an eye on market conditions, upcoming project launches and interest rate trends.

However, there is optimism about the resilience of local demand for private housing, supported by the still-low unemployment rates and strong household balance sheets.

The good mix of ample market liquidity as well as expected improvements in the economy and interest rates later this year should lift overall market sentiment. A healthy pipeline of new project launches should also stimulate market activities and homebuying demand.

Barring unforeseen events, developers could sell 7,000 – 8,000 new homes in 2024, higher than the 6,421 units sold in 2023 but below the five-year average annual new home sales of 9,288 units from 2019 to 2023.

With prices already having risen significantly and buyers becoming more resistant to higher prices, there may be limited potential for robust increases. Yet, the low unsold stock is expected to underpin a modest rise in prices. Private home prices are expected to strengthen by 3% to 5% in 2024, slower than the 6.8% increase in 2023.

In the leasing market, the completion of 8,404 private residential units (excluding ECs) for the rest of 2024 will inject a sizeable supply of properties into the market. Rents are projected to fall in the coming months on the back of softer leasing demand alongside an expanding housing stock for lease and stiffer competition for lessees. Landlords are expected to more realistic in asking rents to secure tenants for stable recurring income.

However, renters moving to newer private homes in sought-after locations with improved amenities might still encounter rent increases. Additionally, tenants renewing leases might face higher rents compared to the lower rates they had committed to in their previous leases.

Rents for properties in higher tier markets are foreseen to stay depressed before stabilising on the back of the expected improvement in economic conditions and hiring later in 2024. Should rents in these sub-markets become less prohibitive, narrowing the gap with rents for the mass-market homes in the OCR, prospective tenants may be drawn back to the higher tier markets.

Office

Mr. Andrew Tangye, Head of Office Leasing Advisory, Singapore

唐业, 办公楼租赁与咨询主管 (新加坡)

Vacancy reached a 7-year low while rents undergo a mild adjustment

The URA's office property rental index in the Central Region recorded a 1.7% q-o-q decline in 1Q24, marking its first decrease in 10 quarters. This could be considered a temporary anomaly in the market, potentially influenced by the cautious sentiments prevalent among occupiers in 2023, which may have carried over into the beginning of this year.

JLL had started to notice a weakening in occupier sentiments around 2Q23. This was driven by a downcast global economic outlook at the beginning of 2023 brought about geopolitical tensions and a high interest rate environment. Consequently, occupiers became cautious, leading many corporate entities to postpone their expansion and relocation plans as a measure to control costs. The average monthly gross effective rent for the basket of CBD Grade A offices tracked by JLL flattened out in 2Q23 and fell by a modest 0.5% in 2H23.

URA Office Property Rental Index and Vacancy Rates in the Central Region

Source: URA, JLL Research

Nonetheless, fundamentals in the Singapore office property market remain healthy. According to URA’s data, vacancy rates of offices in the Central Region fell to 9.3% in 1Q24, its tightest level in more than seven years. Among the various planning areas within the Central Region, the Orchard Planning Area stands out with the lowest vacancy rate at 7.1% during the quarter. This can be attributed to robust demand exhibited by companies in the consumer goods sector, which is experiencing a resurgence following the recovery in the tourism industry post-pandemic.

On the whole, JLL had observed a healthy level of leasing enquiries in 1Q24 compared to the previous quarter. Beside companies from the consumer goods sector, they also hail from the professional and financial services sectors. However, the majority of these enquiries were from small and medium-sized occupiers who showed a preference for newer and better-quality buildings.

With JLL’s average vacancy rate for Grade A office properties in the CBD reaching a new post-COVID low in 1Q24, our CBD Grade A office rents turned around during the quarter and climbed to a 15-year high. This is driven by increased competition among small and medium-sized occupiers, who were willing and able to offer higher bids to secure their preferred spaces in quality buildings.

Outlook brightens as the economy begins to show signs of revival

Barring the occurrence of external risks that could disrupt Singapore's economic recovery, the demand for office space is projected to gain strength in the coming quarters. This can be attributed to pent-up demand from occupiers who postponed their relocation or expansion plans. This should support ongoing rent increases for the rest of 2024.

However, considering the challenges posed by the investment-restricting, high interest rate environment and the significant office pipeline over the next 12 to 24 months that still needs to secure tenants, rent growth for the full year 2024 is expected to remain moderate. Key developments in the CBD include IOI Central Boulevard Towers (1.3 million sq ft), which received its partial Temporary Occupation Permit in April 2024, along with Keppel South Central (0.6 million sq ft) and the redeveloped Shaw Tower (0.4 million sq ft) anticipated to be completed in 2025. With over 1.5 million sq ft of spaces in these new projects still available for tenants seeking flight to quality options, marketing activities for these projects have stepped up in recent months.

Retail

Ms. Angelia Phua, Consulting Director, Research and Consultancy, Singapore

潘慧菁, 顾问董事, 研究与咨询部(新加坡)

Mixed URA retail property data in 1Q24

The URA statistics released today showed that the retail property market succumbed slightly under the pressure of persisting macroeconomic headwinds, specifically, inflationary pressures and an elevated interest rate environment.

In 1Q24, vacancy rates rose slightly, despite resilient occupier demand in the broader retail market and moderated supply conditions. URA’s islandwide vacancy rate rose 0.2 percentage point q-o-q to 6.7% in 1Q24, following three straight quarters of decline. This was led by higher vacancy rates in the Downtown Core, Rest of Central Area and Fringe areas in the Central Region, and Outside Central Region. 

We observed strategic expansion in the broader retail market in diverse trades, primarily food and beverage operations, fashion apparel brands, entertainment establishments, active lifestyle/sports-related operations and beauty and wellness establishments.

However, business closures in selected malls from underperforming retailers due to higher operational costs, keen competition, unpopular retail concepts and changing consumer preferences likely drove vacancy rates higher.

In 1Q24, retail fashion brand Zara ceased its operation at Marina Square while Times Bookstores closed its branches at Plaza Singapura and Waterway Point due to declining sales and low foot traffic in stores. On a positive note, The Travel Store now occupies the retail space at Plaza Singapura previously occupied by Times Bookstores.

Additionally, Emart24, a South Korean convenience store chain, closed all three outlets in Singapore, including those at malls, namely Jurong Point and NEX. Tom & Stefanie, a children’s fashion retailer, closed its outlet at West Mall, which had been in operation for 25 years.

Retail rents declined in 1Q24 on the back of rising vacancy rates. URA’s retail rental index in the Central Region fell 0.4% q-o-q in 1Q24 for the second consecutive quarter, extending the 0.1% q-o-q dip in 4Q23. The uncertain economic outlook, which led landlords to compromise on rents to prioritise occupancy rates, likely led to the decline in rents in 1Q24.

On a positive note, retail asset prices continued to rise, despite falling retail rents. The URA price index in the Central Region rose 1.8% q-o-q in 1Q24, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of an increase.

Increasing capital allocation towards retail assets likely drove retail asset prices higher as investors continued to favour quality retail assets for the rent growth outlook, the favourable supply-demand fundamentals of the retail property market, a positive yield spread over funding costs and the asset class’s scarcity value. Y

2024 Outlook

Notwithstanding the mixed performance in 1Q24, looking ahead, retailers are likely to continue expanding strategically in a move underpinned by sustained domestic consumption amid a tight labour market and tourism growth (business and leisure).

On the tourism front, the pipeline of business travel and meetings, incentive travel, conventions and exhibitions (BTMICE), improved flight connectivity and capacity, and the mutual 30-day visa exemption arrangement between Singapore and China will further boost the tourism recovery.

This will drive vacancy rates of quality retail assets lower for the rest of 2024, amid a moderated supply pipeline, and extend rent growth for the rest of 2024. We maintained our view that rents for prime floor space are projected to continue growing into 2024 by 1.5–2.5% y-o-y, based on JLL Research’s retail asset portfolio.

With market liquidity coupled with the scarcity of tradeable retail assets, rising rents should drive the price growth of prime floor space in quality retail assets for the rest of 2024.